[SMM analysis] whether the export quota of Grasberg copper mine can be increased and whether the spot TC of copper concentrate can rise again.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources recently decided to increase the copper concentrate export quota for mining company Freeport Indonesia to 700000 wet metric tons, more than triple the 198282 wet metric ton quota approved in March this year, Indonesia's Yadaga Post reported. In response, Yunus Saefulhak, head of minerals at Indonesia's Ministry of Mineral Resources, said the approval of the additional quota was due to the successful optimization of Freeport's Grasberg copper and gold mine.

It is worth noting that the export quota approved by Indonesia is an amendment to Freeport's one-year copper concentrate export license in March, that is, the export quota of 700000 wet metric tons includes the quota approved in March this year, and the license will expire in March next year, which Freeport will need to use over the next six months. In addition, Freeport said the increase in copper export quotas will not change the company's total copper production target this year.

According to SMM, the domestic copper concentrate spot market has appeared in the Grasberg copper mine offer, the brand mine TC offer has exceeded 58 US dollars / ton. However, the gold content of copper concentrate mined by Grasberg copper mine is high, which is less attractive to most Chinese smelters with no facilities for extracting precious metals and insufficient recovery. On the other hand, most smelters have more adequate ore preparation in the third quarter, the demand for copper concentrate spot is not very urgent, and near the National Day and the fourth quarter seminar of the CSPT group in Shanghai, coupled with the fact that the long single negotiation cycle is about to start, the smelters hold more wait-and-see attitude, so the actual transactions are still less.

SMM learned that the increase in the supply of Grasberg copper concentrate has had a certain impact on the TC/RC price of the copper concentrate spot market, and the downward trend of TC/RC all the way down this year may change in the short term. In addition, as the port of Matarani in Peru has been reconnected to copper mines owned by Hudbay, MMG, Freeport and Glencore, the supply of copper from Peru has also increased and tensions in the supply of copper concentrates may be alleviated.